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Search for an Alternative Method of Measuring Central Bank Credibility - The Case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) –

Year 2021, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 256 - 270, 01.11.2021
https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop an index-based alternative method in order to measure the CBRT’s credibility. Unlike the previous studies, the original contribution of the method developed in the study is revealed in two points: (i) Inflation targets, which cannot be achieved for a long time, lose the function of anchoring inflation expectations. In this case, developing countries’ central banks prefer to use their own inflation forecasts as an intermediate target in order to manage inflation expectation of private economic agents. Because of this situation, which is also observed in the Turkish economy, the reliability of credibility indices calculated using only the inflation target is open to debate. Therefore, while developing an alternative central bank credibility index in this study, the year-end inflation forecast in the first inflation report of the relevant year besides the central bank’s inflation target are taken into account. (ii) In economies that experience high inflation and/or where inflation exhibits inertia, as using 20% threshold level for the inflation rate like in the previous studies means giving more tolerance to inflation. However, after the CBRT switched to an inflation targeting strategy, the inflation rate fell to single digits, and double-digit inflation rates were considered as a negative psychological level in terms of inflation dynamics. By taking account this situation, in this study, 10% threshold level for the inflation rate is decided to use. Consequently, since the central bank credibility index developed in the study has a more dynamic structure, it is seemed to better explain the CBRT’s credibility level.

References

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Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–

Year 2021, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 256 - 270, 01.11.2021
https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, TCMB’nin kredibilitesini ölçmek için endeks tabanlı alternatif bir yöntem geliştirmektir. Önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, çalışmada geliştirilen yöntemin orijinal katkısı iki noktada ortaya çıkmaktadır: (i) Uzun süre gerçekleştirilemeyen enflasyon hedefleri, enflasyon beklentilerini çıpalama işlevini kaybetmektedir. Bu durumda, gelişmekte olan ülke merkez bankaları özel iktisadi karar birimlerinin enflasyon beklentilerini yönetebilmek için kendi enflasyon tahminlerini ara hedef olarak kullanmayı tercih etmektedirler. Türkiye ekonomisinde de gözlemlenen bu durum nedeniyle, sadece enflasyon hedefi kullanılarak hesaplanan kredibilite endekslerinin güvenilirliği tartışmaya açıktır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada alternatif bir merkez bankası kredibilite endeksi geliştirilirken, merkez bankasının enflasyon hedefinin yanı sıra, ilgili yılın ilk enflasyon raporundaki yılsonu enflasyon tahmini de dikkate alınmaktadır. (ii) Yüksek enflasyon yaşayan ve/veya enflasyonun atalet sergilediği ekonomilerde, önceki çalışmalarda olduğu gibi enflasyon oranı için yüzde 20 eşik düzeyini kullanmak, enflasyona daha fazla tolerans vermek anlamına gelmektedir. Oysa TCMB enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisine geçtikten sonra, enflasyon oranı tek haneli rakamlara düşmüş ve çift haneli enflasyon oranları enflasyon dinamikleri açısından olumsuz bir psikolojik seviye olarak kabul edilmiştir. Bu durum dikkate alınarak, bu çalışmada enflasyon oranı için %10 eşik düzeyinin kullanılmasına karar verilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, çalışmada geliştirilen merkez bankası kredibilite endeksi daha dinamik bir yapıya sahip olduğu için, TCMB’nin kredibilite düzeyini daha iyi açıkladığı görülmektedir.

References

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  • Adrian, T., Laxton, D., & Obstfeld, M. (2018). An Overview of Inflation Forcast Targeting. T. Adrian, D. Laxton ve M. Obstfeld (Ed.). Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, Washington: International Monetary Fund Publication Services, 3-14.
  • Agénor, P.R., & Taylor, M.P. (1992). Testing for Credibility Effects. IMF Staff Papers, 39(3), 545-571.
  • Agénor, P.R. (2001). Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation Targeting. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No.124.
  • Ball, L. (1992), Disinflation with Imperfect Credibility. NBER Working Paper, No. 3983, February.
  • Başçı, E., & Kara, A.H. (2011). Financial Stability and Monetary Policy. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 9-25.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R.L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587.
  • Bernanke, B.S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F.S., & Posen, A.S. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from The International Experience. Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ.
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  • Bomfim, A., & Rudebusch, G. (2000). Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(4), 707-721. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601179.
  • Bordo, M.D., & Siklos, P.L. (2015). Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration. NBER Working Paper, No. w20824.
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  • Calderón, C., Duncan, R., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2004). Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies. Banco Central de Chile, No.285.
  • Carare, A., Andrea, S., Mark, R.S., & Marc, Z. (2002). Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/02/102, June 2002.
  • Cecchetti, S.G., & Krause, S. (2002). Central Bank Structure, Policy Efficiency, and Macroeconomic Performance: Exploring Empirical Relationships. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84, 99-117. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.47-60.
  • Cukierman, A. (1986). Central Bank Behavior and Credibility: Some Recent Theoretical Developments. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 68(5), 5-17. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.68.5-17.him.
  • Çakmaklı, C., & Demiralp, S. (2020). A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility. Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper No: 2015 October 2020.
  • Chansriniyom, T., Epstein, N., & Nalban, V. (2020). The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/20/201.
  • Dabla-Norris, E., Kim. D., Zermeño, M., Billmeier, A., & Kramarenko, V. (2007). Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/07/133, June, 2007.
  • De Mendonça, H.F. (2007). Towards Credibility from Inflation Targeting: The Brazilian Experience. Applied Economics, 39(20), 2599-2615. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707324.
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & De Guimaráes e Souza, G.J. (2009). Inflation Targeting Credibility and Reputation: The Consequences for the Interest Rate. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1228-1238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.05.010
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & De Guimaráes e Souza, G.J. (2012). Is Inflation Targeting A Good Remedy to Control Inflation? Journal of Development Economics, 98(2), 178-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.011.
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & Tiberto, B.P. (2017). Effect of Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through on Inflation: An Assessment for Developing Countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 50, 196-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.03.027
  • Debelle, G., & Fischer, S. (1994). How Independent Should A Central Bank Be? J.C. Fuhrer (Ed.). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policy Makers [Conference Series No.38] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 195-225).
  • Debelle, G., Masson, P., Savastano, M., & Sharma, S. (1998). Inflation Targeting as A Framework for Monetary Policy. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/97/35.
  • Dell’Aricca, G., Rabanal, P., & Sandri, D. (2018). Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4), 147-72. doi: 10.1257/jep.32.4.147
  • Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., Arcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2009). Anchors for Inflation Expectations. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, No.229.
  • Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2012). A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1). 1-36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2442.
  • Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096. doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00207.
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There are 80 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Serdar Varlık 0000-0002-4712-3193

Tolga Daglaroglu 0000-0002-2956-3726

Publication Date November 1, 2021
Submission Date March 11, 2021
Acceptance Date April 27, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 21 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Varlık, S., & Daglaroglu, T. (2021). Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 21(2), 256-270. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340
AMA Varlık S, Daglaroglu T. Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. November 2021;21(2):256-270. doi:10.25294/auiibfd.895340
Chicago Varlık, Serdar, and Tolga Daglaroglu. “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 21, no. 2 (November 2021): 256-70. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
EndNote Varlık S, Daglaroglu T (November 1, 2021) Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 21 2 256–270.
IEEE S. Varlık and T. Daglaroglu, “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”, Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 256–270, 2021, doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
ISNAD Varlık, Serdar - Daglaroglu, Tolga. “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 21/2 (November 2021), 256-270. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
JAMA Varlık S, Daglaroglu T. Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2021;21:256–270.
MLA Varlık, Serdar and Tolga Daglaroglu. “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, vol. 21, no. 2, 2021, pp. 256-70, doi:10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
Vancouver Varlık S, Daglaroglu T. Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2021;21(2):256-70.
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