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Starma Modeling and Estimation of Province-Based Inflation in Turkey

Year 2010, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 1 - 36, 30.06.2010

Abstract


In this study, Turkey's province-based
inflation is estimated by space-time autoregressive moving average (STARMA)
models. Study also aims to introduce STARMA models as efficient econometrical
estimation tools for the analysis of geographical based economic variables. Findings
obtained shows us that statistically significance level and explanatory power
of model are both expressively high. Consequently, this model can be used for
forecasting of province-based inflation. Thus, political authorities can easily
forecast inflation and thereby take necessary measures to cope with both
province-based and country-wide inflation. As a result of these, success of
executed policies will undoubtedly increase.


 

References

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TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ

Year 2010, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 1 - 36, 30.06.2010

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de farklı iller
temelinde enflasyonun uzay-zaman ardışık bağlanım hareketli ortalama (UZABHO)
modelleriyle tahmini yapılmaktadır. Coğrafi temelli ekonomik değişkenlerin
analiz edilmesinde etkin bir ekonometrik tahmin aracı olarak UZABHO
modellerinin tanıtılması da amaçlanmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar gerek
istatistik anlamlılık gerekse açıklayıcı güçleri açısından son derece
başarılıdır. Sonuçların başarısına bakılarak, söz konusu modelin bölgesel
enflasyonun öngörüsünün yapılmasında başarıyla kullanılabileceği rahatlıkla
söylenebilir. Böylelikle, politika yapanlar ülke genelinde olduğu gibi bölgesel
düzeyde de enflasyonu öngörebilecek, bölgeye özel tedbirler alınabilecek ve
uygulanacak politikaların başarı şansı da kuşkusuz artacaktır.




References

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  • Abdus-Salam, M. and M.K. Pervaiz (2005) “Modeling and Forecasting Pakistnan’s Inflation by Using Time Series ARIMA Models”, European Journal of Scientific Research, 9(1), 65-99.
  • Abuaf, N. and P. Jorion (1990) “Purchaising Power Parity in the Long Run”, Journal of Finance, 45(1), 157-174.
  • Aksu, C. and J.Y. Narayan (1991) “Forecasting with Vector ARMA and State Space Methods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 7(1), 17-30.
  • Alberola, E. and J.M. Marques (1999) “On the Relevance and Nature of Regional Inflation Differentials: The Case of Spain”, Banco de Espana, Working Papers, No: 9913.
  • Anselin, L. (1999) “Spatial Econometrics”, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Sciences, Working Papers, No: 2, http://www.csiss.org.
  • Anselin, L. (1988) Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Dortech: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  • Arbia, G., J.P. Elhorst and G. Piras (2005) “Serial and Spatial Dependence in the Growth Process of EU Regions”, Workshop on Spatial Econometrics, Kiel Institute for World Economics, Kiel, 8-9 April 2005, http://www.uni-kiel.com/ifw/konfer/spatial/ arbia_elhorst_piras.pdf.
  • Beck, G., K. Hubrich and M. Marcellino (2006) “Regional Inflation Dynamics Within and Across Euro Area Countries and A Comparison with the US”, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No: 681.
  • Beck, G.W. and A.A. Weber (2005) “Inflation Rate Dispersion and Convergence in Monetary and Economic Unions: Lessons for the ECB”, Center for Financial Studies Working Papers, No: 2005/31, Frankfurt: Goethe University, http://www.ifk-cfs.de/papers/05_31.pdf.
  • Bokhari, S.M.H. and M. Feridun (2006) “Forecasting Inflation Through Econometric Models: An Empirical Study on Pakistan Data”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7(1), 39-47.
  • Box, G.E.P., G.M. Jenkins and G.C. Reinsel (1994) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, (third ed.), New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Breitung, J. and S. Das (2003) “Panel Unit Root Tests under Cross Sectional Dependence”, Mimeo, University of Bonn, http://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/nasm04/55.html.
  • Brincker, R. and P. Andersen (1999) “ARMA Models in Modal Space”, Proceedings of the 17th International Modal Analysis Conference, Proc. SPIE, 3727, 330-334, ftp://ftp.svibs.com/Download/Literature-/Papers/1999/1999_3.pdf.
  • Busetti, F., L. Forni, A. Harvey and F. Venditti (2006) “Inflation Convergence and Divergence with in European Monetary Union”, ECB Working Papers, No: 574.
  • Cecchetti S.G., N.C. Mark and R.J. Sonora (2002) “Price Index Convergence among United States Cities”, International Economic Review, 43(4), 1081-1099.
  • Cecchetti, S. and G. Debelle (2005), “Has the Inflation Process Changed?”, BIS Working Papers, No: 185, November, http://www.bis.org/publ/work185.pdf.
  • Ceglowski, J. (2003) “The Law of one Price: International Evidence for Canada”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 36(2), 373-400.
  • Cliff, A.D. and J.K. Ord (1975) “Space-Time Modeling with an Application to Regional Forecasting”, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 64, 119-128.
  • Cliff, A.D. and J.K. Ord (1981) Spatial Processes: Models and Applications. London: Pion Limited (Militino v.d. 2004: 197 içinden aktarma).
  • Dai, Y. and L. Billard (1998) “A Space-Time Bilinear Model Its Identification”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(6), 657-679.
  • Dalezios, N.R. and K. Adamowski (1995) “Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Modelling in Rural Watersheds”, Hydrological Sciences, 40(5), 553-568.
  • Das, S. and K. Bhattacharya (2005) “Price Convergence Across Regions in India”, Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, No: 2005/1, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics, Department of Economics http://www.ect.uni-bonn.de/forschung /discussion/cpik.pdf
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There are 103 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

K. Batu Tunay

Publication Date June 30, 2010
Submission Date May 9, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2010 Volume: 28 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Tunay, K. B. (2010). TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 28(1), 1-36.
AMA Tunay KB. TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. June 2010;28(1):1-36.
Chicago Tunay, K. Batu. “TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 28, no. 1 (June 2010): 1-36.
EndNote Tunay KB (June 1, 2010) TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 28 1 1–36.
IEEE K. B. Tunay, “TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ”, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 1–36, 2010.
ISNAD Tunay, K. Batu. “TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 28/1 (June 2010), 1-36.
JAMA Tunay KB. TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2010;28:1–36.
MLA Tunay, K. Batu. “TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 28, no. 1, 2010, pp. 1-36.
Vancouver Tunay KB. TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2010;28(1):1-36.

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