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Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde Karbon Dioksit Emisyonu Politikaları Başarılı Olabilir mi? Kırılmalı Birim Kök Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 2243 - 2255, 30.09.2019
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.614319

Abstract

Avrupa Birliği çevre konusunda
duyarlı bir yaklaşıma sahiptir ve çevre koruma politikaları açısından önemli
adımlar atmaktadır. Avrupa Birliği sera gazı emisyonunu ilişkin olarak 1990
yılına kıyasla  2020’de %20 ve 2030’da
%40 düşüş hedeflemektedir. 2050 hedefi olarak ise Paris Anlaşmasına bağlı
kalarak küresel ısınmayı 2°C'nin altında, tercihen 1.5°C’de tutmak için gerekli
politikaları uygulamayı hedeflemektedir. Bu çalışma sera gazlar içinde CO2‘de
odaklanarak Avrupa Birliğinin sera gazı ile ilgili politikalarda başarılı olup
olamayacağını araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla yirmi sekiz Avrupa ülkesine ait kişi
başı yıllık CO2 emisyonu serisi kırılmasız, bir kırılmalı ve iki
kırılmalı ADF birim kök testleri ile sınanmıştır. Kırılmalı birim kök testleri
birkaç durum dışında serilerin durağan olduğunu yani politikalar yapısal
değişiklik yaratırsa  CO2
emisyonunu yeni trend etrafında hareket edeceğini; yani politikaların başarılı
olacağı yönünde bulgular ortaya koymuştur.

Supporting Institution

Anadolu Üniversitesi

Project Number

1805E162

Thanks

Bu çalışma 1805E162 no.lu bilimsel araştırma projesi kapasamında ortaya çıkmıştır.

References

  • Avrupa Komisyonu, (2010) Europe 2020: a European Strategy for Smart Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. Communication COM, Brüksel. Erişim adresi:https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2010: 2020: FIN:EN:PDF
  • Bere, R.C., Precup, I.B. ve. Silvestru, C.I. (2015). On growth poles from EU Countries in the framework of Europe 2020. Proc. Econ. Financ., 23, 920-925.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller., W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
  • Epstein, P.R. (2005). Climate change and human health. New England Journal of Medicine, 353,1433–1436.
  • Falkner R. (2016). The Paris Agreement and the new logic of international climate politics. International Affairs, 92(5), 1107–1125
  • Gamble, J.L., Ebi, K.L., Sussman F.G. ve Wilbanks, T.J., (Ed.). (2008). Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems. Washington DC, A.B.D.: Environmental Protection Agency.
  • Gonzalez, P. F., Landajo, M. ve Presno, M.J. (2014a). Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Division index) decomposition: The activity revaluation approach. Energy, 73, 741-750.
  • Gonzalez, P. F., Landajo, M. ve Presno, M.J. (2014b). The driving forces behind changes in GHG emission levels in EU-27: Differences between member states, Environ. Sci. Policy, 38, 11-16.
  • İnançlı S. (2018). Ulusal ve Uluslararası Boyutta Çevre Ekonomisi: Kavram, Politika, Uygulama. Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi.
  • Narayan, P.K. ve Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Ogden N.H. ve Lindsay L. R. (2016) Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different. Trends in Parasitology, 32(8),1-11.
  • Patz J.A. ve Kovats R.S. (2002) Hot spots in climate change and human health. Br. Med. Journal, 325, 1094–1098.
  • Scarlat, N.,. Dallemand, J.-F, Monforti-Ferrario, F., Banja, M. ve Motola, V. (2015). Renewable energy policy framework and bioenergy contribution in the European Union - an overview from national renewable energy action plans and progress reports. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., 51, 969-985.
  • Tol, R.S.J. (2012). A cost-benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package. Energy Policy, 49, 288-295.
  • Warr, B., Ayres, R., Eisenmenger, N., Kraussman F. ve Schandl H. (2010). Energy use and economic development: a comparative analysis of useful work supply in Austria, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US during 100 years of economic growth. Ecological Econ, 69, 1904-1917.
  • Yıldırım S. (2019) Karbondioksit Salınımı Üzerine Bir Şokun Etkisi Kalıcı Mı? Farklı Gelir Gruplarının Karbondioksit Salınımının Durağanlık Analizi. Fatih Temizel (Ed.) İşletme ve Finans Yazıları - 2 içinde (s. 102-115) İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
  • Zivot, E. ve Andrews, W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

Can Carbon Dioxide Emission Policies Be Successful in European Union Countries? Unit Root Analysis With Structural Changes

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 2243 - 2255, 30.09.2019
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.614319

Abstract

The European Union has an environmentally sensitive approach to
governance and is taking important steps in terms of environmental protection
policies. The European Union set itself the policy targets to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by 20% in 2020 and by 40% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
Furthermore, the objective of 2050 is to adhere to the Paris Agreement and to
implement the necessary policies to keep global warming below 2 ° C, preferably
around 1.5 ° C. This study focuses on CO2 among the greenhouse gases
and examines whether the European Union can succeed in greenhouse gas-related
policies. For this purpose, the annual CO2 emission series of
twenty-eight European countries have been investigated with no-break, one-break
and two-break ADF unit root tests. The unit root tests with break(s) indicate
that, except in a few cases, the series are stationary, therefore if policies
make structural changes, CO2 emissions will move around the trend. In other
words, findings indicate that green house gas reduction policies may be
successful.

Project Number

1805E162

References

  • Avrupa Komisyonu, (2010) Europe 2020: a European Strategy for Smart Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. Communication COM, Brüksel. Erişim adresi:https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2010: 2020: FIN:EN:PDF
  • Bere, R.C., Precup, I.B. ve. Silvestru, C.I. (2015). On growth poles from EU Countries in the framework of Europe 2020. Proc. Econ. Financ., 23, 920-925.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller., W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
  • Epstein, P.R. (2005). Climate change and human health. New England Journal of Medicine, 353,1433–1436.
  • Falkner R. (2016). The Paris Agreement and the new logic of international climate politics. International Affairs, 92(5), 1107–1125
  • Gamble, J.L., Ebi, K.L., Sussman F.G. ve Wilbanks, T.J., (Ed.). (2008). Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems. Washington DC, A.B.D.: Environmental Protection Agency.
  • Gonzalez, P. F., Landajo, M. ve Presno, M.J. (2014a). Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Division index) decomposition: The activity revaluation approach. Energy, 73, 741-750.
  • Gonzalez, P. F., Landajo, M. ve Presno, M.J. (2014b). The driving forces behind changes in GHG emission levels in EU-27: Differences between member states, Environ. Sci. Policy, 38, 11-16.
  • İnançlı S. (2018). Ulusal ve Uluslararası Boyutta Çevre Ekonomisi: Kavram, Politika, Uygulama. Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi.
  • Narayan, P.K. ve Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Ogden N.H. ve Lindsay L. R. (2016) Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different. Trends in Parasitology, 32(8),1-11.
  • Patz J.A. ve Kovats R.S. (2002) Hot spots in climate change and human health. Br. Med. Journal, 325, 1094–1098.
  • Scarlat, N.,. Dallemand, J.-F, Monforti-Ferrario, F., Banja, M. ve Motola, V. (2015). Renewable energy policy framework and bioenergy contribution in the European Union - an overview from national renewable energy action plans and progress reports. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., 51, 969-985.
  • Tol, R.S.J. (2012). A cost-benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package. Energy Policy, 49, 288-295.
  • Warr, B., Ayres, R., Eisenmenger, N., Kraussman F. ve Schandl H. (2010). Energy use and economic development: a comparative analysis of useful work supply in Austria, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US during 100 years of economic growth. Ecological Econ, 69, 1904-1917.
  • Yıldırım S. (2019) Karbondioksit Salınımı Üzerine Bir Şokun Etkisi Kalıcı Mı? Farklı Gelir Gruplarının Karbondioksit Salınımının Durağanlık Analizi. Fatih Temizel (Ed.) İşletme ve Finans Yazıları - 2 içinde (s. 102-115) İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
  • Zivot, E. ve Andrews, W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
There are 17 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Selim Yıldırım 0000-0002-7900-6813

Project Number 1805E162
Publication Date September 30, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 8 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Yıldırım, S. (2019). Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde Karbon Dioksit Emisyonu Politikaları Başarılı Olabilir mi? Kırılmalı Birim Kök Analizi. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(3), 2243-2255. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.614319

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