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Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 36 Issue: 2, 77 - 81, 01.08.2023
https://doi.org/10.29136/mediterranean.1273190

Abstract

Agriculture contributes to economic development as well as meeting the basic nutritional needs of a society. The dried fruits and dried fruit products industry is one of the leading industries contributing to the national economy and forms a significant part of the agricultural industry. This study investigates the determinants of Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products using the gravity model. In this context, the data for the 2005-2021 period for 78 countries importing dried fruits and dried fruit products from Türkiye were analyzed using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML). The analysis revealed that the GDP of Türkiye and the importing country, nominal exchange rate, EU membership of the importing country, the availability of a free trade agreement with the importing country and the average surface temperature changes, positively impact Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. Whereas the distance between countries, which is a good indicator for transportation costs, negatively affects Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. The results of the analyses show that exports of dried fruits and products exhibit similar results to that of exports of agricultural products. Additionally, the gravity model for exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products is valid for Türkiye.

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References

  • Abdullahi NM, Zhang Q, Shahriar S, Irshad MS, Ado AB, Huo X (2022) Examining the determinants and efficiency of China’s agricultural exports using a stochastic frontier gravity model. PLoS ONE 17(9): 1-20.
  • AKİB (2023) Mediterranean Exporter Associations. https://www.akib.org.tr/en/corporate-about-akib.html Accessed 25 February, 2023.
  • Anderson JE (1979) A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review 69(1): 106-116.
  • Arı YO, Sayar R (2020) Türkiye’nin yaş meyve ve sebze ihracatını etkileyen faktörler: Bir çekim modeli analiz. Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Sonbahar Özel Sayısı: 83-89.
  • Atici C, Guloglu B (2006) Gravity model of Turkey's fresh and processed fruit and vegetable export to the EU: A panel data analysis. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing 18(3-4): 7-21.
  • Atif RM, Haiyun L, Mahmood H (2017) Pakistan's agricultural exports, determinants and its potential:An application of stochastic frontier gravity model. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 26(3): 257-276.
  • Awoderu BK, Abu O, Asogwa BC (2022) Econometric analysis of agricultural raw material exports, exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics 10(1): 77-94.
  • Bakari S, Khalfallah S, Zidi A (2020) The determinants of agricultural exports: Empirical validation for the case of Tunisia. MPRA Paper 100611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Bergstrand JH (1985) The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(3): 474-481.
  • Cline WR (2007) Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington: Peterson Institute.
  • Dayıoğlu MR, Kaplan EA (2016) Kriz dönemlerinin dış ticaret hacmi üzerine etkileri: AVRO krizi örneğinin panel çekim modeli ile analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 53(618): 31-42.
  • Demir MA, Bilik M (2018) Türkiye’nin ticaret etkinliği: Stokastik sınır çekim modeli yaklaşımı. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 11(1): 29-48.
  • Doğan Z, Arslan S, Berkman AN (2015) Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün ı̇ktisadi gelişimi ve sorunları: Tarihsel bir bakış. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8(1): 29-41.
  • Erdem E, Nazlioglu S (2008) Gravity model of Turkish agricultural exports to the European Union. International Trade and Finance Association Working Papers, No: 21.
  • Erdinç Z, Erdinç MH (2018) The place of Turkey in agricultural economics and its tracked agricultural policies. Journal of Current Researches on Business and Economics 8(2): 69-84.
  • FAO (1995) The state of food and agriculture: Entering a new era? Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome.
  • Fidan H (2006) Impact of the real effective exchange rate (Reer) on Turkish agricultural trade. International Journal of Social Sciences 1(2): 70-82.
  • Gündüz O (2010) Effect of exchange rate on dried apricot export in Turkey: A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis. African Journal of Agricultural Research 5(18): 2485-2490.
  • Huang H, Von Lampe M, Van Tongeren, F (2011). Climate change and trade in agriculture. Food Policy 36: 9-13.
  • Işın F (2017) Türkiye'nin kuru incir ihracat potansiyeli: Çekim modeli yaklaşımı. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi 23(2): 223-229.
  • Kaplan F (2016). Türkiye’nin meyve ve sebze ihracatı: Bir çekim modeli uygulaması. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 11(42): 77-83.
  • Keskin Hİ (2019) İstanbul’a yönelik iç göçün analizi: Çekim modeli yaklaşımı. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 6: 44-58.
  • Nazlioglu S, Erdem E (2011) Exchange rates and Turkish fresh fruits and vegetables trade with the EU countries: Bilateral trade data analysis. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing 23(2): 93-109.
  • Nordhaus WD (1991) To slow or not to slow: The Economics of the greenhouse effect. The Economic Journal 101: 920-937.
  • Ogunjobi JO, Oladipo OA, Eseyin O, Opaola O, Aransiola IJ (2022) Exchange rate and agricultural exports: evidence from Nigeria (1981-2019). International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) 9(4): 89-101.
  • Orman T, Dellal İ (2021) Cointegration analysis of exchange rate volatility and agricultural exports in Turkey: an ARDL approch. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology 9(6): 1180-1185.
  • Pearce D, Cline W, Achanta A, Fankhauser S, Pachauri R, Tol R. Vellinga P (1996) The social costs of climate change: Greenhouse damage and benefits of control. In: Bruce JP, Hoesung L, Haites EF, Economic and social dimensions of climate change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp. 179-229.
  • Potelwa Y, Lubinga MH, Ntshangase T (2016) Factors influencing the growth of South Africa’s agricultural exports to world markets. European Scientific Journal 12(34): 195-204.
  • Qiang W, Liu A, Cheng S, Kastner T, Xie G (2013) Agricultural trade and virtual land use: The case of China's crop trade. Land Use Policy 33: 141-150.
  • Santos Silva JMC, Tenreyro S (2006) The Log of Gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics MIT Press 88(4): 641-658.
  • Sapa A, Droždz J (2019) Polish agri-food trade with non-EU countries-a gravity model analysis. Annals of The Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusıness Economists 21(4): 403-412.
  • Schuh GE (1974) The exchange rate and U.S. agricultural. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 56: 1-13.
  • Solmaz AR, Bayraktutan Y (2020) Türkiye turizm talebi: panel çekim modeli. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi 10(1): 425-435.
  • TİM (2023) Türkiye Exporters Assembly. https://tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-rakamlari. Accessed 26 February, 2023.
  • Tinbergen J (1962) Shaping the World Economy. Twentieth Century, New York.
  • TradeMap (2023) Statistical database. https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx Accessed 26 February, 2023.
  • Verter N, Bečvářová V (2014) Analysis of some drivers of cocoa export in Nigeria in the era of trade liberalization. Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics 6(4): 208-218.
  • Westerlund J, Wilhelmsson F (2011) Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data. Applied Economics 43(6): 641-649.
  • Yotov Y V, Piermartini R, Monteiro J, Larch M (2016) Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity. WTO Staff Working Paper No: ERSD-2016-10.
  • Zaimovic A (2022). Ekonomi diplomasisinin ihracat üzerine etkisinin analizi. Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.

Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 36 Issue: 2, 77 - 81, 01.08.2023
https://doi.org/10.29136/mediterranean.1273190

Abstract

Agriculture contributes to economic development as well as meeting the basic nutritional needs of a society. The dried fruits and dried fruit products industry is one of the leading industries contributing to the national economy and forms a significant part of the agricultural industry. This study investigates the determinants of Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products using the gravity model. In this context, the data for the 2005-2021 period for 78 countries importing dried fruits and dried fruit products from Türkiye were analyzed using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML). The analysis revealed that the GDP of Türkiye and the importing country, nominal exchange rate, EU membership of the importing country, the availability of a free trade agreement with the importing country and the average surface temperature changes, positively impact Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. Whereas the distance between countries, which is a good indicator for transportation costs, negatively affects Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. The results of the analyses show that exports of dried fruits and products exhibit similar results to that of exports of agricultural products. Additionally, the gravity model for exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products is valid for Türkiye.

Project Number

yok

References

  • Abdullahi NM, Zhang Q, Shahriar S, Irshad MS, Ado AB, Huo X (2022) Examining the determinants and efficiency of China’s agricultural exports using a stochastic frontier gravity model. PLoS ONE 17(9): 1-20.
  • AKİB (2023) Mediterranean Exporter Associations. https://www.akib.org.tr/en/corporate-about-akib.html Accessed 25 February, 2023.
  • Anderson JE (1979) A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review 69(1): 106-116.
  • Arı YO, Sayar R (2020) Türkiye’nin yaş meyve ve sebze ihracatını etkileyen faktörler: Bir çekim modeli analiz. Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Sonbahar Özel Sayısı: 83-89.
  • Atici C, Guloglu B (2006) Gravity model of Turkey's fresh and processed fruit and vegetable export to the EU: A panel data analysis. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing 18(3-4): 7-21.
  • Atif RM, Haiyun L, Mahmood H (2017) Pakistan's agricultural exports, determinants and its potential:An application of stochastic frontier gravity model. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 26(3): 257-276.
  • Awoderu BK, Abu O, Asogwa BC (2022) Econometric analysis of agricultural raw material exports, exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics 10(1): 77-94.
  • Bakari S, Khalfallah S, Zidi A (2020) The determinants of agricultural exports: Empirical validation for the case of Tunisia. MPRA Paper 100611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Bergstrand JH (1985) The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(3): 474-481.
  • Cline WR (2007) Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington: Peterson Institute.
  • Dayıoğlu MR, Kaplan EA (2016) Kriz dönemlerinin dış ticaret hacmi üzerine etkileri: AVRO krizi örneğinin panel çekim modeli ile analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 53(618): 31-42.
  • Demir MA, Bilik M (2018) Türkiye’nin ticaret etkinliği: Stokastik sınır çekim modeli yaklaşımı. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 11(1): 29-48.
  • Doğan Z, Arslan S, Berkman AN (2015) Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün ı̇ktisadi gelişimi ve sorunları: Tarihsel bir bakış. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8(1): 29-41.
  • Erdem E, Nazlioglu S (2008) Gravity model of Turkish agricultural exports to the European Union. International Trade and Finance Association Working Papers, No: 21.
  • Erdinç Z, Erdinç MH (2018) The place of Turkey in agricultural economics and its tracked agricultural policies. Journal of Current Researches on Business and Economics 8(2): 69-84.
  • FAO (1995) The state of food and agriculture: Entering a new era? Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome.
  • Fidan H (2006) Impact of the real effective exchange rate (Reer) on Turkish agricultural trade. International Journal of Social Sciences 1(2): 70-82.
  • Gündüz O (2010) Effect of exchange rate on dried apricot export in Turkey: A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis. African Journal of Agricultural Research 5(18): 2485-2490.
  • Huang H, Von Lampe M, Van Tongeren, F (2011). Climate change and trade in agriculture. Food Policy 36: 9-13.
  • Işın F (2017) Türkiye'nin kuru incir ihracat potansiyeli: Çekim modeli yaklaşımı. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi 23(2): 223-229.
  • Kaplan F (2016). Türkiye’nin meyve ve sebze ihracatı: Bir çekim modeli uygulaması. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 11(42): 77-83.
  • Keskin Hİ (2019) İstanbul’a yönelik iç göçün analizi: Çekim modeli yaklaşımı. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 6: 44-58.
  • Nazlioglu S, Erdem E (2011) Exchange rates and Turkish fresh fruits and vegetables trade with the EU countries: Bilateral trade data analysis. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing 23(2): 93-109.
  • Nordhaus WD (1991) To slow or not to slow: The Economics of the greenhouse effect. The Economic Journal 101: 920-937.
  • Ogunjobi JO, Oladipo OA, Eseyin O, Opaola O, Aransiola IJ (2022) Exchange rate and agricultural exports: evidence from Nigeria (1981-2019). International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) 9(4): 89-101.
  • Orman T, Dellal İ (2021) Cointegration analysis of exchange rate volatility and agricultural exports in Turkey: an ARDL approch. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology 9(6): 1180-1185.
  • Pearce D, Cline W, Achanta A, Fankhauser S, Pachauri R, Tol R. Vellinga P (1996) The social costs of climate change: Greenhouse damage and benefits of control. In: Bruce JP, Hoesung L, Haites EF, Economic and social dimensions of climate change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp. 179-229.
  • Potelwa Y, Lubinga MH, Ntshangase T (2016) Factors influencing the growth of South Africa’s agricultural exports to world markets. European Scientific Journal 12(34): 195-204.
  • Qiang W, Liu A, Cheng S, Kastner T, Xie G (2013) Agricultural trade and virtual land use: The case of China's crop trade. Land Use Policy 33: 141-150.
  • Santos Silva JMC, Tenreyro S (2006) The Log of Gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics MIT Press 88(4): 641-658.
  • Sapa A, Droždz J (2019) Polish agri-food trade with non-EU countries-a gravity model analysis. Annals of The Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusıness Economists 21(4): 403-412.
  • Schuh GE (1974) The exchange rate and U.S. agricultural. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 56: 1-13.
  • Solmaz AR, Bayraktutan Y (2020) Türkiye turizm talebi: panel çekim modeli. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi 10(1): 425-435.
  • TİM (2023) Türkiye Exporters Assembly. https://tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-rakamlari. Accessed 26 February, 2023.
  • Tinbergen J (1962) Shaping the World Economy. Twentieth Century, New York.
  • TradeMap (2023) Statistical database. https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx Accessed 26 February, 2023.
  • Verter N, Bečvářová V (2014) Analysis of some drivers of cocoa export in Nigeria in the era of trade liberalization. Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics 6(4): 208-218.
  • Westerlund J, Wilhelmsson F (2011) Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data. Applied Economics 43(6): 641-649.
  • Yotov Y V, Piermartini R, Monteiro J, Larch M (2016) Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity. WTO Staff Working Paper No: ERSD-2016-10.
  • Zaimovic A (2022). Ekonomi diplomasisinin ihracat üzerine etkisinin analizi. Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Engineering
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Ali Rıza Aktaş 0000-0003-4964-7334

Fatih Kaplan 0000-0001-7417-1126

Ahmet Koluman 0000-0002-6157-3051

Project Number yok
Publication Date August 1, 2023
Submission Date March 29, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 36 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Aktaş, A. R., Kaplan, F., & Koluman, A. (2023). Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences, 36(2), 77-81. https://doi.org/10.29136/mediterranean.1273190
AMA Aktaş AR, Kaplan F, Koluman A. Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences. August 2023;36(2):77-81. doi:10.29136/mediterranean.1273190
Chicago Aktaş, Ali Rıza, Fatih Kaplan, and Ahmet Koluman. “Determinants of Dried Fruit Products Sector Export: A Gravity Model for Türkiye”. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences 36, no. 2 (August 2023): 77-81. https://doi.org/10.29136/mediterranean.1273190.
EndNote Aktaş AR, Kaplan F, Koluman A (August 1, 2023) Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences 36 2 77–81.
IEEE A. R. Aktaş, F. Kaplan, and A. Koluman, “Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye”, Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 77–81, 2023, doi: 10.29136/mediterranean.1273190.
ISNAD Aktaş, Ali Rıza et al. “Determinants of Dried Fruit Products Sector Export: A Gravity Model for Türkiye”. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences 36/2 (August 2023), 77-81. https://doi.org/10.29136/mediterranean.1273190.
JAMA Aktaş AR, Kaplan F, Koluman A. Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences. 2023;36:77–81.
MLA Aktaş, Ali Rıza et al. “Determinants of Dried Fruit Products Sector Export: A Gravity Model for Türkiye”. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences, vol. 36, no. 2, 2023, pp. 77-81, doi:10.29136/mediterranean.1273190.
Vancouver Aktaş AR, Kaplan F, Koluman A. Determinants of dried fruit products sector export: A gravity model for Türkiye. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences. 2023;36(2):77-81.

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