Research Article
Year 2019,
Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 213 - 232, 31.12.2019
Abstract
Bu çalışmada 2010 yılının birinci çeyreği ile 2018 yılının ikinci çeyreği arası dönemde Türkiye’de döviz kurundan tüketici fiyatlarına geçişkenlik incelenmektedir. Doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (NARDL) modeli tahmin sonuçlarına göre döviz kurundaki artışın tüketici fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi, döviz kurundaki azalışın etkisinden daha fazladır. Bu sonuç zayıf piyasa rekabeti ve aşağı yönlü fiyat katılıklarının bir işareti olarak yorumla-nabilir. Döviz kurundaki %1 lik artış uzun dönemde tüketici fiyatlarını %0,7 arttırmaktadır. Bunda yüksek oranda ithal girdi kullanan üretim yapısının payı çok büyüktür. Simetri testinin sonuçlarına göre döviz kurunun etkileri kısa dönemde simetrik iken uzun dönemde asimetrik etkiler belirgin şekilde görülmek-tedir. Enflasyon üzerinde etkili olan faktörlerden bir tanesi de firmaların fiyatlama davranışlarıdır. Analiz sonuçları Türkiye’de uzun dönemde fiyatlamanın üretici para birimine (PCP) göre yapıldığını göstermektedir.
Keywords
References
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Series A: Statistics in Society, 180(2), 587–612. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12213 Choudhri, E. U., & Hakura, D. S. (2006). Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices : Does the inflationary environment matter?, 25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2005.11.009 Çiçek, S., & Boz, Ç. (2013). A New Test of Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Bounds Approach. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 28(333), 43–64. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2013.333.3840 de Melo Modenesi, A., Luporini, V., & Pimentel, D. (2017). Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence, inflation dynamics and policy implications for Brazil (1999–2016). The Brazilian Economy since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64885-9_4 de Mendonça, H. F., & Tostes, F. S. (2015). The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy. Open Economies Review, 26(4), 787–816. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-014-9339-3 Delatte, A. L., & López-Villavicencio, A. (2012). Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(3), 833–844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.03.003 Edwards, S. (2006). The relationship between exchange rates and inflation targeting revisited. NBER Working Paper Series, 1–47. https://doi.org/10.3386/w12163 El bejaoui, H. J. (2013). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate variations: AN empirical analysis for four advanced countries. International Economics, 135–136, 29–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2013.10.001 Forero, F. P., & Vega, M. (2016). Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through : Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs. Peruvian Economic Association, (63), 1–23. Gümrah Ümit., K. F. (2017). Asimetrik Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği: Türkiye Örneği. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yünetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(4), 1–8. Jimborean, R. (2013). The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states. Economic Systems, 37(2), 302–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.08.006 Jiménez-rodríguez, R., & Morales-zumaquero, A. (2016). A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 985–1000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.06.007 Kal, H., Arslaner, F., & Arslaner, N. (2015). Sources of Asymmetry and Non-linearity in Pass-Through of Exchange Rate and Import Price to Consumer Price Inflation for the Turkish Economy during Inflation Targeting Regime. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Working Paper, (November), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1994.6323 Kara, H., & Öğünç, F. (2008). Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 52–66. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X440604 Korkmaz, S. ve B. M. (2015). Döviz Kuru Dalgalanmalarının Yurtiçi Fiyatlara Etkisi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(4), 69–85. López-villavicencio, A., & Mignon, V. (2017). Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries : Do the inflation environment , monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter ? Journal of International Money and Finance, 79, 20–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.004 Maka, E. D. (2013). Asymmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes to CPI Inflation in Ghana. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management, 2(5), 338–350. Önder, Ö ve Görüş, M. Ş. (2018). Türkiye ’ de Döviz Kuru Kanalının Etkinliğinin Asimetrik Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonlarıyla Sınanması. Maliye Dergisi, (174), 48–71. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 Pollard, P. S., & Coughlin, C. C. (2005). Size Matters: Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through at the Industry Level. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.716001 Przystupa, J., & Wróbel, E. (2014). Asymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Asymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through An Exercise on Polish Data, 8775(2011). https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775490103 Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2013). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745 Shintani, M., Terada-hagiwara, A., & Yabu, T. (2013). Journal of International Money Exchange rate pass-through and in fl ation : A nonlinear time series analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 512–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.024 Snowdon, B., & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern macroeconomics: its origins, development and current state. Edward Elgar Publishing. Tümtürk, O. (2017). Türkiye’ de Döviz Kurlarının Yurtiçi Fiyatlara Geçiş Etkisi ve Enflasyon Hedeflemesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 24(3), 837–855. Yücel, E., & Akkoç, U. (2017). Türkiye’de Dövi̇z Kuru Geçi̇şkenli̇ği̇ni̇n Asi̇metri̇k Davranışı. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 13(ICMEB17), 903–911. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017ICMEB1735499
Year 2019,
Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 213 - 232, 31.12.2019
Abstract
References
- Baharumshah, A. Z., Sirag, A., & Soon, S. V. (2017). Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico. Research in International Business and Finance, 41(April), 247–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.034 Ben Cheikh, N., Zaied, Y. B., Bouzgarrou, H., & Nguyen, P. (2018). Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through: Does business cycle matter? Journal of Economic Integration, 33(2). https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2018.33.2.1235 Benlialper, A. (2015). Asymmetric Exchange Rate Policy in Inflation Targeting Developing Countries, 1–22. Blinder, A. S. (1982). Inventories and Sticky Prices : More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics. The American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.3386/w0620 Brun-Aguerre, R., Fuertes, A. M., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2017). Heads I win; tails you lose: asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 180(2), 587–612. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12213 Choudhri, E. U., & Hakura, D. S. (2006). Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices : Does the inflationary environment matter?, 25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2005.11.009 Çiçek, S., & Boz, Ç. (2013). A New Test of Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Bounds Approach. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 28(333), 43–64. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2013.333.3840 de Melo Modenesi, A., Luporini, V., & Pimentel, D. (2017). Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence, inflation dynamics and policy implications for Brazil (1999–2016). The Brazilian Economy since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64885-9_4 de Mendonça, H. F., & Tostes, F. S. (2015). The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy. Open Economies Review, 26(4), 787–816. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-014-9339-3 Delatte, A. L., & López-Villavicencio, A. (2012). Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(3), 833–844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.03.003 Edwards, S. (2006). The relationship between exchange rates and inflation targeting revisited. NBER Working Paper Series, 1–47. https://doi.org/10.3386/w12163 El bejaoui, H. J. (2013). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate variations: AN empirical analysis for four advanced countries. International Economics, 135–136, 29–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2013.10.001 Forero, F. P., & Vega, M. (2016). Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through : Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs. Peruvian Economic Association, (63), 1–23. Gümrah Ümit., K. F. (2017). Asimetrik Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği: Türkiye Örneği. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yünetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(4), 1–8. Jimborean, R. (2013). The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states. Economic Systems, 37(2), 302–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.08.006 Jiménez-rodríguez, R., & Morales-zumaquero, A. (2016). A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 985–1000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.06.007 Kal, H., Arslaner, F., & Arslaner, N. (2015). Sources of Asymmetry and Non-linearity in Pass-Through of Exchange Rate and Import Price to Consumer Price Inflation for the Turkish Economy during Inflation Targeting Regime. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Working Paper, (November), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1994.6323 Kara, H., & Öğünç, F. (2008). Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 52–66. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X440604 Korkmaz, S. ve B. M. (2015). Döviz Kuru Dalgalanmalarının Yurtiçi Fiyatlara Etkisi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(4), 69–85. López-villavicencio, A., & Mignon, V. (2017). Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries : Do the inflation environment , monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter ? Journal of International Money and Finance, 79, 20–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.004 Maka, E. D. (2013). Asymmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes to CPI Inflation in Ghana. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management, 2(5), 338–350. Önder, Ö ve Görüş, M. Ş. (2018). Türkiye ’ de Döviz Kuru Kanalının Etkinliğinin Asimetrik Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonlarıyla Sınanması. Maliye Dergisi, (174), 48–71. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 Pollard, P. S., & Coughlin, C. C. (2005). Size Matters: Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through at the Industry Level. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.716001 Przystupa, J., & Wróbel, E. (2014). Asymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Asymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through An Exercise on Polish Data, 8775(2011). https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775490103 Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2013). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745 Shintani, M., Terada-hagiwara, A., & Yabu, T. (2013). Journal of International Money Exchange rate pass-through and in fl ation : A nonlinear time series analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 512–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.024 Snowdon, B., & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern macroeconomics: its origins, development and current state. Edward Elgar Publishing. Tümtürk, O. (2017). Türkiye’ de Döviz Kurlarının Yurtiçi Fiyatlara Geçiş Etkisi ve Enflasyon Hedeflemesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 24(3), 837–855. Yücel, E., & Akkoç, U. (2017). Türkiye’de Dövi̇z Kuru Geçi̇şkenli̇ği̇ni̇n Asi̇metri̇k Davranışı. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 13(ICMEB17), 903–911. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017ICMEB1735499
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Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | December 31, 2019 |
| Submission Date | October 10, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 Volume: 20 Issue: 2 |