Araştırma Makalesi
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TESTING THE INTEREST RATE HYSTERESIS FOR SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: FINDINGS OF NONLINEAR UNIT ROOT TEST

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1, 59 - 70, 28.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.937555

Öz

This study aims to analyze the stationarity of real interest rates in 10 selected European Countries such as Turkey, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, Poland, and the Czech Republic over the period 2002:01 - 2020:12 within the context of the monthly observations. According to the asymmetric exponential smooth transition threshold autoregressive model (AESTAR), developed by Sollis (2009) as one of the nonlinear unit root tests, was performed to test the stationarity of the series, and according to the results, the long-term real interest rate series in all countries other than Belgium were determined to contain unit-roots.

Kaynakça

  • Ackley, G. (1961). Macroeconomic theory. New York: Macmillan.
  • Akdoğan, K. (2020). Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment?. Resources Policy, 67, 101653.
  • Apergis, N., Christou, C., Payne, J. E. & Saunoris, J. W. (2015). The change in real interest rate persistence in OECD countries: Evidence from modified panel ratio tests. Journal of Applied Statistics, 42(1), 202–213.
  • Arabacı, Ö. (2014). Türkiye’de Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri reel faizinin süreğenliği: Parametrik olmayan bir uygulama. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 61, 53-64.
  • Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Martin-Valmayor, M. Á. (2021). Non-linearities and persistence in US long-run interest rates. Applied Economics Letters, 1-5.
  • Cotarelli, C., & Courelis, A. (1994). Financial structure, bank lending rates, and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. IMF Working Paper, 94/39, 72-93.
  • Das, S., Gupta, R., Kanda, P. T., Reid, M., Tipoy, C. K., & Zerihun, M. F. (2014). Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: Evidence and implications. Economic Change and Restructuring, 47(1), 41-62.
  • Fisher, I. (1930). Theory of interest: as determined by impatience to spend income and opportunity to invest it. New York: Augustusm Kelly Publishers.
  • Gil-Alana, L. A., Cunado, J., & Gupta, R. (2017). Evidence of persistence in US short and long-term interest rates. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(5), 775-789.
  • Hansen, L. P., & Singleton, K. J. (1983). Stochastic consumption, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of asset returns. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 249–65.
  • Haug, A. A. (2014). On real interest rate persistence: The role of breaks. Applied Economics, 46(10), 1058-1066.
  • Keynes, J, M. (1936). The general theory of employment interest and money. New York: Macmillan Press.
  • Kim, J.H. & Ji, P. I. (2011). Mean-reversion in international real interest rates. Econ. Model, 28(4), 1959-1966.
  • King, R. G., Plosser, C. I., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1991). Stochastic trend and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review, 81(4), 819-40.
  • Koopmans, TC. (1965). On the concept of optimal economic growth in the economic approach to development planning. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Koustas, Z., & Lamarche, J. (2008). Evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in the real interest rate. Applied Economics, 42(2), 237-248.
  • Koustas, Z., & Serletis, A. (1999). On the Fisher effect. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(1), 105-30.
  • Kwak, S. Y. (2000). An empirical analysis of the factors determining the financial crisis in Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 11(2), 195-206.
  • Lai, K. S. (1997). Long‐term persistence in the real interest rate: some evidence of a fractional unit root. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(3), 225-235.
  • Lai, K. S. (2008). The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 140–55.
  • Lucas, R.E. (1978). Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometricia, 46(6), 1429-45.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1992). Is the Fisher effect for real? A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 30, 195–215.
  • Mutinda, D. M. (2014). The effect of lending interest rate on economic growth in Kenya. (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Nairobi Üniversitesi, Nairobi.
  • Neely, C., & Rapach, D. E. (2008). Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, 018.
  • Ng’etich, J.C., & Waxau, K. (2011). The effects of interest rate spread on the level of non-performing assets: A case of commercial banks in Kenya. International Journal of Business and Public Management, 1(1), 58-65.
  • Nyangena, N. W. (1991). Interest rates determination in Kenya: Implications for the financial liberalization policy. (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Nairobi Üniversitesi, Nairobi.
  • Ollech, D., & Webel, K. (2020). A random forest-based approach to identifying the most informative seasonality tests. Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 55.
  • Özdemir, Z. A., Ekinci, C., & Gokmenoglu, K. (2015). International evidence on real interest rate persistence. The Singapore Economic Review, 60(04), 1550087.
  • Rapach, D. E. (2003). International evidence on the long-run impact of inflation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 35(1), 23-48.
  • Rapach, D. E., & Wohar, M. E. (2004). The persistence in international real interest rates. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9(4), 339-46.
  • Rose, A. (1988). Is the real interest rate stable?. Journal of Finance, 43, 1095–112.
  • Rudebusch, G. D. (2002). Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 1161–1187.
  • Sekioua, S. H., & Zakane, A. (2007). On the persistence of real interest rates: New evidence from long horizon data. Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, 1(1), 63-77.
  • Sibbertsen, P., Wegener, C., & Basse, T. (2014). Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds. J. Bank. Finance, 41, 109-118.
  • Silva, C. G. D., & Leme, M. C. D. S. (2011). An analysis of the degrees of persistence of inflation, inflation expectations and real interest rate in Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 65(3), 289-302.
  • Sollis, R. (2009). A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries. Economic Modelling, 26(1), 118-125.
  • Soon, S. V., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Shariff, N. S. M. (2017). The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 50, 36-51.
  • Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
  • Yin, S. Y., Lin, C. C., & Chang, M. J. (2021). Interest rate persistence and monetary policy rule in the light of model uncertainty. SSRN 3763582.

SEÇİLMİŞ AVRUPA ÜLKELERİ İÇİN FAİZ HİSTERİSİNİN TEST EDİLMESİ: DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN BİRİM KÖK TESTİ BULGULARI

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1, 59 - 70, 28.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.937555

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye, Almanya, İspanya, Fransa, İtalya, Hollanda, Macaristan, Belçika, Polonya ve Çek Cumhuriyeti olmak üzere seçilmiş 10 Avrupa ülkesindeki reel faiz oranının durağanlığını 2002:1-2020:12 arası aylık gözlemler doğrultusunda incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Sollis (2009) tarafından geliştirilen ve doğrusal olmayan birim kök testlerinden biri olan asimetrik üstel yumuşak geçiş eşik otoregresif model (AESTAR) birim kök testi ile serilerin durağanlıkları test edilmiş ve sonuçlara göre Belçika dışındaki ülkelerde uzun dönem reel faiz oranı serilerinin birim köklü olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Ackley, G. (1961). Macroeconomic theory. New York: Macmillan.
  • Akdoğan, K. (2020). Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment?. Resources Policy, 67, 101653.
  • Apergis, N., Christou, C., Payne, J. E. & Saunoris, J. W. (2015). The change in real interest rate persistence in OECD countries: Evidence from modified panel ratio tests. Journal of Applied Statistics, 42(1), 202–213.
  • Arabacı, Ö. (2014). Türkiye’de Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri reel faizinin süreğenliği: Parametrik olmayan bir uygulama. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 61, 53-64.
  • Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Martin-Valmayor, M. Á. (2021). Non-linearities and persistence in US long-run interest rates. Applied Economics Letters, 1-5.
  • Cotarelli, C., & Courelis, A. (1994). Financial structure, bank lending rates, and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. IMF Working Paper, 94/39, 72-93.
  • Das, S., Gupta, R., Kanda, P. T., Reid, M., Tipoy, C. K., & Zerihun, M. F. (2014). Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: Evidence and implications. Economic Change and Restructuring, 47(1), 41-62.
  • Fisher, I. (1930). Theory of interest: as determined by impatience to spend income and opportunity to invest it. New York: Augustusm Kelly Publishers.
  • Gil-Alana, L. A., Cunado, J., & Gupta, R. (2017). Evidence of persistence in US short and long-term interest rates. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(5), 775-789.
  • Hansen, L. P., & Singleton, K. J. (1983). Stochastic consumption, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of asset returns. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 249–65.
  • Haug, A. A. (2014). On real interest rate persistence: The role of breaks. Applied Economics, 46(10), 1058-1066.
  • Keynes, J, M. (1936). The general theory of employment interest and money. New York: Macmillan Press.
  • Kim, J.H. & Ji, P. I. (2011). Mean-reversion in international real interest rates. Econ. Model, 28(4), 1959-1966.
  • King, R. G., Plosser, C. I., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1991). Stochastic trend and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review, 81(4), 819-40.
  • Koopmans, TC. (1965). On the concept of optimal economic growth in the economic approach to development planning. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Koustas, Z., & Lamarche, J. (2008). Evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in the real interest rate. Applied Economics, 42(2), 237-248.
  • Koustas, Z., & Serletis, A. (1999). On the Fisher effect. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(1), 105-30.
  • Kwak, S. Y. (2000). An empirical analysis of the factors determining the financial crisis in Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 11(2), 195-206.
  • Lai, K. S. (1997). Long‐term persistence in the real interest rate: some evidence of a fractional unit root. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(3), 225-235.
  • Lai, K. S. (2008). The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 140–55.
  • Lucas, R.E. (1978). Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometricia, 46(6), 1429-45.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1992). Is the Fisher effect for real? A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 30, 195–215.
  • Mutinda, D. M. (2014). The effect of lending interest rate on economic growth in Kenya. (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Nairobi Üniversitesi, Nairobi.
  • Neely, C., & Rapach, D. E. (2008). Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, 018.
  • Ng’etich, J.C., & Waxau, K. (2011). The effects of interest rate spread on the level of non-performing assets: A case of commercial banks in Kenya. International Journal of Business and Public Management, 1(1), 58-65.
  • Nyangena, N. W. (1991). Interest rates determination in Kenya: Implications for the financial liberalization policy. (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Nairobi Üniversitesi, Nairobi.
  • Ollech, D., & Webel, K. (2020). A random forest-based approach to identifying the most informative seasonality tests. Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 55.
  • Özdemir, Z. A., Ekinci, C., & Gokmenoglu, K. (2015). International evidence on real interest rate persistence. The Singapore Economic Review, 60(04), 1550087.
  • Rapach, D. E. (2003). International evidence on the long-run impact of inflation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 35(1), 23-48.
  • Rapach, D. E., & Wohar, M. E. (2004). The persistence in international real interest rates. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9(4), 339-46.
  • Rose, A. (1988). Is the real interest rate stable?. Journal of Finance, 43, 1095–112.
  • Rudebusch, G. D. (2002). Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 1161–1187.
  • Sekioua, S. H., & Zakane, A. (2007). On the persistence of real interest rates: New evidence from long horizon data. Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, 1(1), 63-77.
  • Sibbertsen, P., Wegener, C., & Basse, T. (2014). Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds. J. Bank. Finance, 41, 109-118.
  • Silva, C. G. D., & Leme, M. C. D. S. (2011). An analysis of the degrees of persistence of inflation, inflation expectations and real interest rate in Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 65(3), 289-302.
  • Sollis, R. (2009). A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries. Economic Modelling, 26(1), 118-125.
  • Soon, S. V., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Shariff, N. S. M. (2017). The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 50, 36-51.
  • Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
  • Yin, S. Y., Lin, C. C., & Chang, M. J. (2021). Interest rate persistence and monetary policy rule in the light of model uncertainty. SSRN 3763582.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Gürçem Özaytürk Bu kişi benim

Ali Eren Alper 0000-0003-0008-1202

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Ocak 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Mayıs 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Özaytürk, G., & Alper, A. E. (2022). SEÇİLMİŞ AVRUPA ÜLKELERİ İÇİN FAİZ HİSTERİSİNİN TEST EDİLMESİ: DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN BİRİM KÖK TESTİ BULGULARI. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 23(1), 59-70. https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.937555